Politics News: 30 October 2026

RNC Chair Joe Gruters predicted Republicans will win Senate races in Maine, Texas, Ohio and Alaska, all of which Decision Desk HQ leans narrowly toward Democrats, and also win North Carolina, which it rates likely blue. He acknowledged Democrats hold a 10-point generic ballot lead but said well-known candidates will make the difference. Gruters said the RNC will follow Dunleavy's lead on certification if the Peltola probe finds wrongdoing.

Democrats on Capitol Hill said Israel's election results were mixed, citing high turnout and reduced support for Netanyahu while all parties fell short of the 61 seats needed to lead the Knesset. Lawmakers pointed to retired Gen. Gadi Eisenkot as a potential moderate influence on curbing West Bank settler violence, but noted he also opposes a Palestinian state. The vote left Democrats concerned about Israel's divisions and coalition doubts.

Sen. Ted Cruz said Republicans could lose as many as eight Senate seats and be swept in all Texas statewide races if they have a bad day on Nov. 3. He said eight to 10 Senate races are basically tied and warned that massive Democratic turnout could produce a blood bath for Republicans. Cruz urged reliable Republican voters to show up, saying early voting so far would leave Republicans losing massively.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham said he is open to an official state apology for Britain's role in the transatlantic slave trade and offered talks with affected countries and campaigners. He expressed personal sorrow and regret but rejected reparations, saying British people today cannot be held liable for historical wrongs. He also said he would launch a debt restructuring drive for the poorest Commonwealth countries, led by Gordon Brown.

A Treasury Department report said Iran's headline inflation reached 90 percent in September after the U.S. launched Operation Economic Outcast in late August. The report said the rial hit an unofficial rate of 2,687,000 per dollar in October and that Iran has not loaded oil onto vessels since Aug. 25. Treasury said sanctions and a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz have hit oil supplies, while efforts target cryptocurrency.

President Trump said his administration is investigating the $6.3 billion hacking of cryptocurrency exchange Binance, the largest such hack on record. He said the US does not yet know whether a suspected North Korean hacker group was responsible. Binance suspended deposits and withdrawals, while crypto firms froze about $3 billion in assets and the company said it will cover all losses.

A judge, Anna Korwin-Piotrowska, ordered Poland's constitutional court president Bogdan Święczkowski and his deputy suspended for a month. Święczkowski called the move a coup, and protesters clashed with police outside the court in Warsaw. The episode escalates Prime Minister Donald Tusk's fight over the rule of law, while President Karol Nawrocki interrupted his trip to Senegal.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused Democratic-led states of having poor fraud prevention mechanisms while announcing anti-fraud initiatives in Minnesota. He said guardrails tend to be loosest in Democratic states, though he acknowledged fraud also occurs in red states. The administration has frozen more than $1 billion in Medicaid funds for Minnesota and California, and Vice President Vance is chairing an anti-fraud task force.

Election forecaster Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the Minnesota and Louisiana Senate races toward Democrats ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. Louisiana moved from safe Republican to likely Republican, while Minnesota moved from leans Democratic to likely Democratic. The change leaves its Senate composition projection at 49 Democrats, 46 Republicans and five toss-ups.

New Bureau of Economic Analysis data show US economic output from the fourth quarter of 2025 through the third quarter of 2026 was more than $32.2 trillion, while debt held by the public was more than $32.4 trillion as of Sept. 30. The total national debt was more than $40.5 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office projects the debt to GDP ratio will reach 120 percent in 2036, surpassing the 106 percent record set in 1946.

A split 9th Circuit panel again rejected the Trump administration's bid to set aside 20,000 California ballots it says are likely noncitizens until verified. The 2-1 majority did not dispute a lower court finding that the list is not credible and said separating ballots could harm the whole system. The administration may seek Supreme Court or full 9th Circuit relief.

Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed said he would go through a metal detector at the US Capitol if President Trump agreed to sit for a lie detector. El-Sayed referenced Trump's ties to Jeffrey Epstein and his claims about the 2020 election. The White House pushed back, saying Trump has been totally exonerated on anything relating to Epstein. El-Sayed is in a tight race against former Rep. Mike Rogers.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney endorsed the EU's offer of associate membership after a two-day summit in Montreal, describing it as the deepest possible partnership short of accession. Carney and EU leaders set a June 2027 deadline to determine the terms and boundaries of the relationship, which comes with a payment schedule. Officials said legislation would not be necessary, but some longstanding trade disputes remained unresolved.

Lawyers for former FBI director James Comey asked a federal judge Friday to dismiss the Trump administration's third prosecution, arguing the Justice Department waited too long. Judge Trevor McFadden did not rule. Comey faces two espionage-related charges over a 2016 disclosure to a New York Times reporter and denies wrongdoing. The Justice Department said it used a criminal information to toll the statute of limitations.

A federal judge opened an investigation into concerns that the Trump administration lied to her in the legal battle over the redevelopment of East Potomac Golf Links. Judge Ana Reyes announced the formal inquiry after learning the government had been working to submit the redesign plan to the National Capital Planning Commission without previously informing her.

The dispute has escalated as President Trump has said the site will close on November 15 to proceed with his championship-style course project.

A 33-year-old ICE officer, Mario Alberto Morales, was indicted by a Harris County grand jury on aggravated assault with a deadly weapon after allegedly driving into Miguel Parra Hernandez. The 48-year-old immigrant without legal status was driving to work when authorities tried to pull him over, and footage shows an SUV hitting him. ICE called the indictment a political stunt, while the district attorney said an ICE badge does not give free rein.

European diplomats refused to stand for an official photo with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the G20 Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Atlanta, leading US hosts to cancel the planned picture. The UK was among the countries that refused to participate, citing a longstanding policy against direct engagement with Russian ministers since the invasion of Ukraine.

The cancellation comes as relations between the US and Russia have partially thawed, with President Trump waiving some sanctions and agreeing to import Russian diesel to lower fuel prices ahead of the midterms.

Meta settled a social media addiction lawsuit with an 18-year-old Mississippi plaintiff on Friday, avoiding its next bellwether trial. The case alleged her childhood use of Instagram and Snapchat worsened her mental health and contributed to an eating disorder, suicidal thoughts, depression and self-harm. A trial against Snap will continue next week, after another plaintiff also settled with Meta.

Top Trump administration officials are set to announce new anti-fraud measures in St. Cloud, Minnesota, as the White House steps up its crackdown on fraud involving federal assistance and healthcare programs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, FBI Director Kash Patel, and other senior officials will join Assistant Attorney General Colin McDonald for the announcement.

The event follows the FBI's announcement of 168 arrests stemming from a months-long operation targeting violent crime on tribal lands across three states.

Welsh First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth said there has been a significant step forward regarding his country's spending and borrowing powers after meeting with Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Burnham lobbied the leaders of Wales and Scotland to devolve deeper to the regions, while both first ministers stated that decisions on local devolution rest solely with their parliaments.

The meeting followed rows over the UK budget, which the Welsh government said amounted to a real-terms funding cut for the country.

Andy Burnham's Number 10 North office in Manchester has launched 50 external job adverts, including a rewiring the state deputy director role. The advertised basic salaries total up to £2.8 million, excluding employer pension contributions. The office, set up by the prime minister in July, now has 120 staff and will move to a new government office on First Street in spring 2027.

The Department of Justice accused Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola of misleading a federal court in an amended complaint seeking to block the certification of the election. The filing argues that Peltola's campaign orchestrated a sham campaign to confuse voters by recruiting a candidate with the same name as incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan.

The DOJ's lawsuit contends the election will be invalid unless Sullivan wins, while Peltola's campaign denies knowing about the other candidate and legal experts argue the action was not illegal under state law.

A final Labor Department rule will require pharmacy benefit managers to disclose fees and compensation from drug makers, pharmacies, consultants and others. The Labor Department said the transparency could help employers negotiate contracts and seek lower prescription drug costs. The rule is projected to save health plans and enrollees more than $800 million annually, with potential savings of up to $22 billion over 10 years.

The Vatican confirmed that Pope Leo XIV, formerly Robert Prevost, submitted a mail-in ballot in Chicago ahead of next week's midterm elections. The Holy See said he has exercised his right to vote as a United States citizen whenever eligible and also voted while living in Peru. Records show he requested Democratic primary ballots in 2008 and 2010 and Republican primary ballots in 2012, 2014 and 2016.

President Trump will hold in-person rallies in Iowa and Kansas after announcing a shift to tele-rallies, a source familiar with the matter said. The Kansas rally was initially scheduled for Saturday and Iowa for Sunday, but both will now be held on Sunday. The change was described as a scheduling move to accommodate additional tele-rallies in the final days before Election Day.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said state police will take over sexual assault complaints at Cornell University after an agreement with the school. The move follows outrage over the handling of Jane Doe's gang rape allegations, in which the anonymous former student says she was raped by seven Chi Phi fraternity members in 2024. Attorney General Letitia James has been appointed to investigate the case and decide on pursuing criminal charges.

Drew Creek, leader of the Green Party on Cornwall Council and mayor of Newquay, joined the Labour and Co-operatives on Thursday after the party's 'Zionism is racism' motion. He said the motion crossed a line and that the leadership had doubled down. The Cornwall Green Party said it was deeply saddened by his decision and does not try to impose uniformity of belief among members.

Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall defended President Trump's decision to cancel his in-person rally in the state, saying he is doing well in the polls. Trump has not announced new rallies after canceling events in Kansas and Iowa, and will use tele-rallies for the rest of his midterm campaigning. Three polls released this week show Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Marshall, while Decision Desk HQ now gives Marshall a 58 percent chance of winning.

A 55-year-old Russian national was charged with espionage in Poland after police found him photographing trains at an unguarded railway crossing in Swidnica. Authorities said the photos could be used against state security and that he had systematically photographed strategic infrastructure. Prosecutors are investigating activities for foreign intelligence against Poland, and the man is also accused of illegal border crossing and terrorism.

Former Labour leader Neil Kinnock said UK welfare decisions, including the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance, turned growing alienation in Wales into active dislike. He said governing from both ends of the M4 before the Senedd election made the challenge harder for Labour. Labour lost power in Wales in May, returning just nine Senedd members after 27 years, and Kinnock also expressed reservations about devolving justice to Wales.

The Justice Department issued dozens of subpoenas in the Alaska Senate race over allegations that Mary Peltola's campaign recruited Dan J. Sullivan, a candidate with the same name as incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan. The subpoenas were sent to Peltola's campaign offices and the offices of Dan J. Sullivan. It follows a state probe ordered by Gov. Mike Dunleavy and a House Oversight probe, while Peltola denied knowing about the other candidate.

The Cook Political Report shifted 12 House races toward Democrats on Friday, including Colorado's 5th, Pennsylvania's 1st and the open South Carolina 1st moving from lean Republican to toss-up. It also moved Pennsylvania's 8th and Ohio's 9th from toss-up to lean Democrat. Cook now forecasts more than 218 seats to lean Democrat or better, projecting a Democratic House majority of 227 to 240 seats.

Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola denied knowing that her campaign recruited Dan J. Sullivan to challenge incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, saying she knew of no other candidate on the ballot. Reports said Peltola's campaign was directly involved in recruiting the other Sullivan, a claim her campaign denied. The dispute has drawn a Justice Department lawsuit, a state probe by Gov. Mike Dunleavy and a House Oversight probe.

An Emerson College Polling survey found Democrats leading Republicans 52 percent to 42 percent on a generic congressional ballot, a 10-point lead. The result is slightly tighter than an 11-point Democratic lead in September, with about 5 percent of likely voters still undecided. Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats an 80 percent chance of winning the House and a 60 percent chance of winning the Senate.

An Emerson College Polling survey found Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Republican Roger Marshall 48.7 percent to 45.2 percent in the Kansas Senate race, with a 3.5-point credibility interval. The race is notable because Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since the 1930s. Cook and Decision Desk HQ rate the contest a toss-up as the Iran war, Trump's falling approval and rising fuel costs weigh on Republicans.

President Trump snapped at a Reuters reporter Thursday who asked whether his recent rally cancellations were related to his health or being sick of traveling. He said he has been doing good, feels perfect, and called the reporter sick and disgusting. The changes replaced in-person travel with telerallies in multiple states, including Kansas and Iowa, and Trump said he is doing very well in Kansas.

English regional mayors will be free to use a share of local tax revenues to provide cash grants to residents and businesses, according to new devolution plans. Chancellor John Healey described the move as the most radical act of devolution in a generation, aiming to boost local economic growth.

However, using the funds for grants may reduce money available for other priorities like housing and transport, with some mayors already planning voluntary rebate schemes.

Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy ordered an investigation into claims that Democratic candidate Mary Peltola recruited a spoiler candidate to confuse voters in the Senate race. The controversy has raised questions about whether Senate Majority Leader John Thune would seat Peltola if she wins, while also highlighting the broader competitive nature of the upcoming midterm elections.

The probe adds uncertainty to a race that is already a focal point for national political observers.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham said the UK's four nations must move together after a Glasgow meeting with Scottish and Welsh first ministers and Northern Ireland officials. He outlined plans to devolve more power over employment support and reindustrialisation funding to regions. Defence Secretary Wes Streeting said Burnham will avoid arbitrary welfare cuts, while fiscal devolution plans will give mayoral authorities a share of income tax from 2028.

France's GDP contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2026, pushing the country closer to recession and complicating efforts to manage a debt-driven financial crisis. Economy Minister Roland Lescure blamed extreme heat and energy prices for the negative growth, warning that the government must pass its 2027 budget to avoid hitting a wall.

The fragmented parliament has failed to pass budgets in recent years, potentially forcing the use of a constitutional backdoor.

Britain is unlikely to meet its green heating targets after Chancellor John Healey announced over £3 billion in cuts to the energy department to fund defence spending. The reductions include £741 million from the boiler upgrade scheme, which subsidises heat pumps, leading experts to warn that clean heating ambitions are being undermined.

Critics argue the cuts dismantle the pro-renewables agenda of former energy secretary Ed Miliband, while ministers insist longer-term changes will still benefit the green agenda.

The National Defense Authorization Act faces its most significant threat in 65 years due to partisan disputes over its $1.15 trillion cost and provisions regarding the war in Iran. Democrats are demanding cuts and guardrails, while the Trump administration holds firm on its budget request, creating a wide gap between the two branches.

Experts warn that breaking the streak of annual passage could make future defense legislation more difficult to enact in a fragmented political environment.

A drone attack hit an oil refinery in Novokuibyshevsk, Russia, producing jet fuel for the army, despite reports that Kyiv agreed to pause strikes on energy targets under US pressure. Russian officials blamed Ukraine for the attack, which occurred as Moscow continued to bomb Ukrainian infrastructure. The strike complicates diplomatic efforts ahead of the US midterm elections, with Ukraine not yet officially taking responsibility.

Defence Secretary Wes Streeting said foreign firms awarded contracts worth more than £50m must invest an equivalent amount in British factories, jobs and training. The government will apply the offset strategy case by case from April 2027, aiming to support the target of spending 3% of GDP on defence by 2030. Streeting and Chancellor John Healey will unveil the rules at BAE's shipbuilding site in Glasgow.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham said his first budget was not as radical as he would have liked because economic uncertainty and the war in Iran limited the room for manoeuvre. Chancellor John Healey announced measures including a £100 payment for most households to help with winter energy bills. Burnham said he wanted major changes to the benefits system but that they would not involve brutal cuts.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has angered ministerial colleagues by refusing to share what they say is crucial information about the impact of her migration changes. Sources said she repeatedly declined to say how much she expects homelessness to rise from changes to the asylum system, including ending permanent leave to remain and the duty to support people who would otherwise become destitute.

Home Office ministers will meet counterparts from other departments over the next few days to reach a compromise amid warnings of a potential staff crisis in the care sector.

A cross-party UK committee said the government's 10-year plan to end the obesity epidemic in England is doomed to fail unless it is urgently reassessed and led personally by the prime minister. The health and social care select committee said basic questions about measuring progress and coordinating departments remain unanswered more than a year after the moonshot ambition was set.

It called for a dedicated cabinet committee chaired by the prime minister, noting that 30% of adults in England are living with obesity and close to a third of children are overweight or living with obesity. The report puts pressure on the government to clarify the obesity plan and define how progress will be measured.

Ryan Dinnage, who accompanied Reform UK leader Nigel Farage on campaign walkabouts in April and May, was convicted in June of raping a woman while she slept in a caravan at the Royal Windsor horse show and jailed for eight years. He had been charged in 2025, three years after the 2022 offence, and was seen beside Farage on at least four campaign occasions. Reform UK said a third-party contractor had assured them Dinnage had been vetted.

A Commons public accounts committee report said the government should explore writing off most of a £197m loan to the British Council by converting it into a grant or similar. The committee said the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office lacked a positive vision for the council, whose soft power value is put at £1bn a year.

The council has cut a third of its headcount and sold historical assets, but forecasts it will not generate an operating surplus until 2029-30. The report said the council's future remains precarious despite a turnaround plan to cut staffing by a further 25%, sell more assets and close operations in nine countries.

Senate Majority PAC will spend $750,000 on digital ads in South Carolina for the first time in the Senate race between Sen. Darline Graham and Annie Andrews. The group said it will contrast Andrews with Graham over health care costs and Rx drug prices, as recent polls show a close contest.

The spending follows Republican outside spending of more than $20 million in support of Graham, while Andrews has raised more than $20 million herself compared with Graham's $1.2 million. South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998, and Decision Desk HQ gives Graham a 65 percent chance to win.

Binance said a suspected hack prompted cryptocurrency firms to freeze about $3 billion in assets, describing the situation as a security issue. The exchange temporarily suspended deposits and withdrawals while it conducts security checks, freezes funds and works with law enforcement, and vowed to cover all losses. Tether said it froze more than $1.5 billion in USDT, while Circle said it froze more than $800 million in USDC.

Rep. Rob Bresnahan and Democrat Paige Cognetti clashed in a Thursday debate over the war in Iran, data centers and other issues in Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District, which Cook rates a toss-up. Cognetti argued the administration and Congress have not been transparent about the military operation, while Bresnahan said the war has gone on too long and needs to end. The candidates also sparred over data center proposals in the district.

The Justice Department issued three grand jury subpoenas to Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder employees, ordering them to appear in court on Nov. 4. The subpoenas seek documents and communications about letters sent in July and October over alleged noncitizens on California voter rolls. The move follows a DOJ lawsuit after officials received a USB drive with 20,000 names flagged by Homeland Security as noncitizens.

The RNC said Thursday President Trump will appear in tele-rallies in 19 states before Election Day, after planned in-person rallies in Iowa and Kansas were canceled. RNC Chairman Joe Gruters called the 72-hour sprint a boost in the closing days, and the committee said Republicans are in a strong position in both canceled states.

The announcement came as polls showed competitive Senate races in Kansas and Iowa, with both races within the margin of error in recent surveys. A Republican strategist told The Hill the October blitz aims to ensure every MAGA vote possible comes out despite declining GOP support.

Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy said Thursday the state's midterm election certification process could be stopped or changed if an investigation finds wrongdoing in the probe into Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola. The probe follows reports that Peltola's campaign recruited Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. to run against incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, an allegation her campaign denied.

Dunleavy said the state will investigate everyone and every organization associated with the matter, while a GOP-led House Oversight Committee probe and a Justice Department lawsuit also target the race. The dispute could affect certification of the Alaska Senate race, in which Peltola is challenging Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.