Record El Niño drives Southwest flooding
Heavy rains tied to a record El Niño have caused flash flooding and deaths in the Southwest, while Pagosa Springs, Colorado, prepared for a San Juan River crest above its 1911 flood level. The El Niño is expected to peak in December.
IllustrationThe story so far
Heavy rain brought flash flooding and mandatory evacuations across parts of Arizona and New Mexico, while Pagosa Springs, Colorado, braced for a potentially catastrophic San Juan River crest. The river was forecast to reach more than 20 feet, above the 17.8 feet recorded in the town's 1911 flood, and had reached about 14 feet by Sunday evening. Officials closed roads in Pagosa Springs and ordered evacuations near swollen rivers in Sedona, Camp Verde and Gisela.
A weekend storm killed at least four people and dumped two or three months of rain on Arizona in days. Clovis, New Mexico, received 28.84 inches since September 20 against a 3.3 inch average. NOAA's seasonal outlook links the strongest El Niño on record to increased precipitation across much of the southern United States this winter. Warm Pacific waters add heat and moisture, making such extreme events more likely.
Carbon Brief's analysis of 14 climate models finds the ongoing super El Niño is likely to peak in December, with 10 of 14 models projecting that timing. The event, underway since June, is projected to reach a Niño3.4 anomaly near 4C, more than a degree above the 2015 to 2016 record. A record-breaking El Niño has formed in the Pacific, and scientists estimate its additional heat could kill around 450,000 people worldwide.
Latest updates
4 updates · newest first- 9 NovNew development
Strongest El Niño on record arrives with potential for global weather shifts
A record-breaking El Niño has formed in the Pacific, with scientists estimating the additional heat could kill around 450,000 people worldwide. The phenomenon is already causing drought in the Amazon and extreme rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa. Researchers suggest climate change may be intensifying these events, and the current system may not peak for another month or two.
Grist ↗
- 6 NovNew development
Super El Niño on track to peak in December and may be strongest in a millennium
Carbon Brief's analysis of 14 climate models finds the ongoing super El Niño is likely to peak at the end of 2026, with 10 of 14 models projecting a December peak. The event, underway since June, has already broken records and is projected to reach a Niño3.4 anomaly near 4C, more than a degree above the 2015 to 2016 record. It may push average global temperatures to record levels next year.
Carbon Brief ↗
- 5 NovNew development
Record El Niño linked to extreme Southwest flooding
A weekend storm killed at least four people and dumped two or three months of rain on Arizona in days. Clovis, New Mexico, received 28.84 inches since September 20 against a 3.3-inch average. NOAA's seasonal outlook links the strongest El Niño on record to increased precipitation across much of the southern United States this winter. The warm Pacific waters add heat and moisture, making such extreme events more likely.
- 2 NovNew development
Colorado town braces for historic flood as heavy rains batter southwest
Heavy rain brought flash flooding and mandatory evacuations across parts of Arizona and New Mexico, while Colorado's Pagosa Springs braced for a potentially catastrophic San Juan River crest. The river was forecast to reach more than 20 feet, above the 17.8 feet recorded in the town's devastating 1911 flood, and had reached about 14 feet by Sunday evening. Officials closed roads in Pagosa Springs and ordered evacuations near swollen rivers in Sedona, Camp Verde and Gisela.
The Guardian ↗