US inflation report fuels Fed rate hike talk
October US consumer prices rose 0.4% and core inflation 0.3%, both above forecasts. Treasury yields edged higher Thursday as traders awaited producer price and housing data.
IllustrationThe story so far
Before the report, analysts expected October consumer prices to rise 0.3% and core inflation to rise 0.2%, with Bank of America projecting annual growth of 3.8% and 2.7%, above the Fed's 2% goal. When the report came out on Tuesday, both measures came in hotter, at 0.4% and 0.3%.
The surprise pushed Treasury yields higher, with the 2-year yield reaching 4.698% and the 10-year 4.938%. A $42 billion 10-year auction then sold at a 5.02% yield, showing weak demand. Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, said the report pointed to possible larger December increases.
By Thursday, bond trading had resumed after the Veterans Day closure, and yields edged higher again. The 10-year note yield rose 2 basis points to 5.0100%, while the 2-year yield rose 5 basis points to 4.7800%. Traders are now watching Friday's producer price report and Thursday's existing home sales data for clues about the Federal Reserve.
Latest updates
6 updates · newest first- 12 NovNew development
US Treasury yields edge higher ahead of inflation and housing data
US Treasury yields edged higher Thursday as bond trading resumed after the Veterans Day closure and investors awaited fresh inflation and housing data. The 10-year note yield rose 2 basis points to 5.0100 per cent, while the 2-year yield rose 5 basis points to 4.7800 per cent. Traders are watching Friday's producer price report and Thursday's existing home sales data for clues about the Federal Reserve.
CNBC ↗
- 11 NovOfficial statement
Fed's Goolsbee calls inflation report borderline disturbing
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called October's 0.4% consumer price increase borderline disturbing, saying tariffs have not faded and services inflation remains high. He said the Fed faces a real inflation issue as Governor Christopher Waller and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan discussed possible larger or additional rate hikes. The report was the third straight month of outsized price increases.
- 11 NovNew development
Weak 10-year Treasury auction follows hot inflation and Fed 50 basis point hike talk
The $42 billion 10-year US Treasury auction drew weak demand and sold at a 5.02% yield, above the 5.01% secondary-market level. US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October and core inflation accelerated to 0.3%, both above consensus, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would back a 50 basis point increase if inflation was not contained. It stalled a month-long rebound in US bonds and could support China's yuan push.
South China Morning Post ↗
- 10 NovNew development
US inflation rises 0.4% in October, above forecasts
Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% expected, while core inflation increased 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast. The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release a year-over-year rate because data was not collected in October 2025. The report added to arguments for a Federal Reserve rate increase at its December meeting, with traders fully pricing a quarter-point hike.
The Guardian ↗
BBC News ↗
- 10 NovNew development
US Treasury yields rise after hot October CPI
US Treasury yields rose Tuesday after October consumer prices grew 0.4%, above the 0.3% expected, while core inflation rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast. The 2-year yield climbed more than 15 basis points to 4.698%, and the 10-year rose more than 7 basis points to 4.938%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a 50 basis point December hike should be considered if inflation is higher than forecast.
- 9 NovNew development
US inflation report expected to show persistent price pressure
The October consumer price index is due Tuesday and is expected to rise 0.3%, with core inflation up 0.2%, slower than September. Bank of America estimates annual growth at 3.8% for headline and 2.7% for core, well above the Fed's 2% goal. Officials say tariffs and the Iran war are keeping price pressure persistent, and rising prices point to the Fed increasing borrowing costs before Christmas.
MarketWatch ↗